Core viewpoint 1 The duration of the conflict has exceeded market expectations. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has evolved from a "short-term bargaining chip" to a sustained supply chain disruption, and the pricing framework established by the market based on the assumption of a "quick closing" has clearly failed. two The impact has broken through the logistics layer and substantially transmitted to the smelting end. If the strait blockade continues for more than 1-2 weeks, the Middle East region will still face passive production cuts of 300000-500000 tons/year of electrolytic aluminum capacity, and the risk of production cuts is still accumulating. three Passive downward revision of net increase in overseas supply in 2026